COVID-19 and Urban Futures: Impacts on Business Closures in Miami-Dade County

The COVID-19 pandemic altered the local economic geographies of many U.S. cities, and it remains unclear how long these changes will persist. This study analyzed the sociospatial dynamics of business closures in Miami-Dade County, Florida, from August 2020 to August 2021 with an explicit focus on reconciling the pandemic's effects in the context of location theory. We found that traditional urban centers and transit-concentrated areas experienced disproportionately higher rates of business closures during the study period, suggesting a potential wave of commercial suburbanization in Miami. Middle-class and working-class Hispanic neighborhoods suffered the most business closures. The results of correlation analysis and spatial regression models suggested a positive association between the incidence of COVID-19 cases and business closures at both zip code and individual business levels. These results also beckon a revaluation of the role of certain urban externalities in traditional location theory. The importance of automobile accessibility and agglomeration effects are poised to persist beyond the pandemic, but the benefits of proximity to the public transport system might decline. The trends observed in Miami suggest that the pandemic could generate more automobile-reliant employment subcenters in U.S. cities and amplify problems of intraurban inequality and urban sprawl. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] La pandemia del COVID-19 alteró las geografías económicas locales de muchas ciudades de los Estados Unidos, y aún no hay claridad por cuánto tiempo más persistirán estos cambios. Este estudio analizó la dinámica socioespacial del cierre de negocios en el Condado de Miami-Dade, Florida, de agosto del 2020 hasta agosto del 2021, centrándose explícitamente en reconciliar los efectos de la pandemia dentro del contexto de la teoría locacional. Descubrimos que los centros urbanos tradicionales y las áreas de tránsito concentrado experimentaron tasas desproporcionadamente más altas de cierres de negocios durante el período del estudio, lo cual sugiere una ola potencial de suburbanización comercial en Miami. Los vecindarios hispánicos de clase media y de la clase trabajadora sufrieron al máximo de cierres de negocios. Los resultados del análisis de los modelos de correlación y regresión espacial sugirieron una asociación positiva entre la incidencia de los casos de COVID-19 y los cierres de negocios, tanto al nivel de los códigos zip como de los negocios individuales. Estos resultados también invitan a la revaluación del papel de ciertas externalidades urbanas en la teoría locacional tradicional. La importancia de la accesibilidad al automóvil y los efectos de la aglomeración muestran disposición a persistir más allá de la pandemia, opero los beneficios de la proximidad del sistema de transporte público podría declinar. La tendencia observada en Miami sugiere que la pandemia podría generar más subcentros de empleo dependientes del automóvil en las ciudades americanas y ampliar los problemas de desigualdad intraurbana y la dispersión urbana. (Spanish) [ FROM AUTHOR] COVID-19疫情改变了美国许多城市的地方经济地理。目前, 尚不清楚这些变化会持续多久。本研究分析了2020年8月至2021年8月期间佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县商业倒闭的社会空间变化, 根据区位理论探讨了对疫情影响的缓解。我们发现, 在此期间, 传统的城市中心和交通密集地区经历了不成比例的更高的商业倒闭率, 这表明迈阿密可能会出现商业郊区化浪潮。西班牙裔中产阶级和工人阶级社区出现了最多的商业倒闭。相关性分析和空间回归模型结果表明, 在邮政编码尺度和个体尺度, COVID-19发病率与商业倒闭都存在着正相关性。这些结果也呼吁, 需要重新评估某些城市外部特性在传统区位理论中的作用。汽车可及性和聚集效应的重要性将会一直持续到疫情之后, 但公共交通系统的临近优势可能会下降。迈阿密的趋势表明, COVID-19可能会在美国城市产生更多依赖于汽车的就业分中心, 加剧城市内部不平等、城市扩张等问题。 (Chinese) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Annals of the American Association of Geographers is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

A panacea for small firm insolvencies? – A critical review of the pre-pack scheme launched in India

Purpose>To augment the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, the Indian Government introduced the pre-packaged insolvency process exclusively for small and medium firms. This paper aims to critically review some of the key features of the process and also identifies potential glitches imminent in the initial years of implementation.Design/methodology/approach>This study is descriptive and based on secondary data. The provisions of the pre-pack scheme, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and reports on the progress of insolvency resolution in India are used to substantiate the observations.Findings>This study shows that pre-packs would certainly help enhance the small and medium enterprise insolvency resolution process in India. However, the ambitious time frame can be adhered to only if the institutional framework for bankruptcy is strengthened.Research limitations/implications>This paper is based on the initial regulatory provisions of the pre-pack process. Subsequent changes in regulations may affect the findings.Practical implications>Some of the concerns in the process and the changes required to facilitate a smooth, speedy and efficient resolution process have been highlighted in this study.Originality/value>Pre-packs are a very recent introduction to the insolvency regime in India. This paper makes a fervent attempt to explain the pre-pack process and the outcomes that can be expected in the early years after its rollout.

Identifying changes in predictors of business failures during and after the economic crisis in Italy

Following the prolonged economic crisis of recent years, a new economic shake-up due to the COVID-19 pandemic is under way. We consider whether banks and financial institutions may apply the same models as before for credit scoring and predicting risk. In particular, we investigate the prediction of survival or failure of Small Business Enterprises in Italy between 2008 and 2013, and between 2013 and 2018, using logistic regression models based on baseline balance sheet data. By fitting appropriate models including interaction with the time period, we identify several major differences. Notably, the Investment Rigidity Ratio was very strongly associated with failure probability in the first period but not the second, and a low Tangible Assets Ratio had a much stronger protective effect in the first period than in the second. The effect of the age of the firm also differed between the periods: younger firms were at greater risk of failure than older firms in 2008-2013 but this was not seen in 2013-2018. Especially in times of major changes, it is vital that quantitative aids to decision-making should be valid and up-to-date.

What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

An economic downturn coincided with the start of the epidemic but the recession was short and moderate, compared with that of 1920/21. Cross-sectional high-frequency data indicate that the epidemic affected the labor supply sharply but briefly with no ensuing spill-overs;most of the recession, brief as it was, was due to the end of the war. I analyze weekly city-level mortality data and economic indicators with time series methods and structural estimation of an economic-epidemiological model: interventions to hinder the contagion reduced mortality at little economic cost, probably because reduced infections mitigated the impact on the labor force.